The Oakland Tribune reported that just before a midnight (et) deadline, Davis
chose to get out of the final season of his six-year contract with the
Warriors.
Davis could still return to the Warriors when the free agent signing period
begins or the team could go to another club in a sign-and-trade deal.
The 29-year-old Davis averaged a team-high 21.8 points, 7.6 assists, 4.7
rebounds and was second in the NBA at 2.33 steals over 82 games last season.
He was the only Warrior to appear in every game last season.
Acquired from New Orleans during the 2004-05 season, Davis has career averages
of 17.1 points and 4.1 rebounds over 608 regular season games.
The Warriors finished 48-34 last season, barely missing out on the playoffs.
Davis engineered the Warriors to the postseason the previous year, breaking a
12-season playoff drought. It was during the 2007 playoffs when the Warriors,
as an eighth seed, shocked the top-seeded Dallas Mavericks in the first round.
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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MySportsbook.com: NBA Championship Odds
With the playoffs about two months away, the top two teams in the Western Conference are the clear cut leaders to win the NBA Championship. The Dallas Mavericks have the best record in the NBA (44-9) and have been absolutely scorching since the second week of the season. What makes the Mavs’ record more impressive is the fact that they dropped their first four games of the season. Currently they have won 17 out of their last 18 and are MySportsbook.com’s favorite (2-1) to win it all. Right behind the Mavs are the Pacific leading Phoenix Suns (39-13). Last season, the Suns lost in the Conference Finals to non-other then the Mavericks four games to two. Of course the Suns were without center Amare Stoudemire who has is averaging 19.9 PPG and 9.5 RPG since coming back from his knee injury. Unlike the Mavs, the Suns have struggled a bit lately having lost their last three and four out of their last seven. Of course the main reason for their three straight loses is due to the absence of two time MVP Steve Nash, who is out with a shoulder injury. Heads-up, the Mavs have beaten the Suns in both of their meetings this season.
In the Eastern Conference, the Pistons (32-19) are the favorites to win it all at 6-1. The addition of Chris Webber seems to have been a good move for the Pistons. Since coming over from the 76ers, Webber has averaged 13.1 PPG and 7.3 RPG and the Pistons are 11-4. Even though the defending champion Heat are currently on the playoff making cusp, they are the Eastern Conference team that is getting the most action to win it all (9-1). The fact that Shaquille O’Neal is back in the starting lineup after missing 39 games probably has something to do with this. No doubt, Shaq makes a difference when in the lineup as their winning six out of their last seven would indicate.
Just because it is the All-Star break doesn’t mean that you can’t bet on NBA hoops this weekend. Be sure to log onto MySportsbook.com to bet on who you think will cut down the nets this July. Also, be sure to check out all of the lines and props for All-Star weekend. With the highest credit card acceptance rate in the industry, there are plenty of ways to cash in on the NBA this weekend.
MySportsbook.com’s odds to win the NBA Championship:
Atlanta Hawks 1000-1
Boston Celtics 5000-1
Charlotte Bobcats 5000-1
Chicago Bulls 20-1
Cleveland Cavaliers 20-1
Dallas Mavericks 2-1
Denver Nuggets 25-1
Detroit Pistons 6-1
Golden State Warriors 250-1
Houston Rockets 12-1
Indiana Pacers 60-1
Los Angeles Clippers 45-1
Memphis Grizzlies 5000-1
Miami Heat 9-1
Milwaukee Bucks 1000-1
Minnesota T-Wolves 200-1
New Jersey Nets 50-1
New Orleans Hornets 150-1
New York Knicks 150-1
Orlando Magic 75-1
Philadelphia 76ers 1000-1
Phoenix Suns 5-2
Portland TrailBlazers 1000-1
Sacramento Kings 250-1
San Antonio Spurs 9-1
Seattle Sonics 5000-1
Toronto Raptors 35-1
Utah Jazz 20-1
Washington Wizards 25-1
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